A probabilistic seismic risk assessment (PSRA) involves the estimation of the probability of damage and losses resulting from potential future earthquakes. This damage and loss might occur to buildings, infrastructure, people or even the environment. In this version of the European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), the physical damage and loss for residential, commercial and industrial buildings (and their occupants) has been calculated by combining stochastic catalogues obtained from the seismic hazard model, with a ground motion model logic tree, a regional model of site response, and with physical vulnerability and exposure models. The calculations are undertaken with the OpenQuake-engine and access to the input files (stored in a GitLab repository) is provided. Pre-computed results including average annual economic loss, 50 – 1000 year return period economic losses, and average annual loss of life for 44 countries at both national and administrative level 1 can be explored through interactive viewers. A number of web services are also available for the implementation of automated access to the data and models. Technical details on the development of the risk model can be found in the Technical Report, and a list of related publications are provided in Documentation page.
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This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY). To view a copy of the license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
If you make use of the European seismic risk model, please cite as follows:
H. Crowley, J. Dabbeek, V. Despotaki, D. Rodrigues, L. Martins, V. Silva, X. Romão, N. Pereira, G. Weatherill, L. Danciu (2021) European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20). EFEHR Technical Report 002 V1.0.0, https://doi.org/10.7414/EUC-EFEHR-TR002-ESRM20